OKBET World Cup 2022
The last time Canada qualified for the OKBET World Cup 2022, the first Top Gun movie was released, Freddie Mercury and Queen performed on stage for the last time, and the original Super Mario Bros. was the highest-grossing video game in the United States. It’s been a while.
The Canadians don’t want to be a footnote at the OKBET World Cup 2022. They want to create an impression, a statement. Getting out of the group stage, as Canada was unable to achieve in its sole World Cup trip in 1986, would accomplish this.
So, how might Canada advance from Group F to the Group of 16? Let’s start with the odds.
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World Cup Group F Odds
World Cup Qualification Odds From Group F
How Will Canada Fare in the World Cup?
There are three games. That’s all. Canada and the other 31 OKBET World Cup teams will play three games to determine if they are good enough to advance to the Group of 16. Group play in Canada begins on November 23 and ends on December 1:
- Canada vs. Belgium: November 23 at 2 p.m. ET
- Canada vs. Croatia: November 27 at 11 a.m. ET
- Canada vs. Morocco: December 1 at 10 a.m. ET
Canada must score enough points in those three games to finish at least second in the group and advance to the Group of 16. Going into a OKBET World Cup 2022 as an underdog, the conventional wisdom is that four points in the group stage – 1-1-1 – should be enough. That is not entirely correct.
Only 17 of the 33 teams that have accumulated four points in the group stages since the 1994 World Cup have qualified. With four points, 48 percent of the teams do not qualify. It is still possible to qualify with four points, but Canada must rely on other results to do so. They’ll need at least five points to truly control their destiny and qualify.
Although five points do not guarantee qualification to the Group of 16, all 13 teams that have collected five points in the group stage have qualified. So, how is Canada going to get five points? You could say it was a win and two draws. That’s great, but how do they get those results?
Let’s take a look at the odds and matchups once more.
World Cup Canada Game 1 Vs Belgium
|Canada To Lose||-400|
|Canada To Win||+1050|
A victory over Belgium appears unlikely, with odds of +1050. Les Diables Rouges have a lot of momentum heading into the World Cup. They finished third in the 2018 World Cup after a 1-0 semi-final loss to France. They did, however, defeat England 2-0 in the third-place match.
Belgium has gone 34-7-5 with a ridiculous +85 goal differential since finishing third in 2018. Again, victory appears improbable. But Canada doesn’t need to win here; they just need to draw.
Since 2020, Belgium has drawn six times against Ivory Coast, Czechia, Greece, Wales (twice), and Ireland. Only Wales and Czechia are ranked higher in FIFA than Canada. As a result, relatively weaker opponents have been able to achieve the exact result that Canada desires. How did they manage it?
Looking at each team’s opening formation, the 3-4-3 formation is the most successful against Belgium (to get a draw). It was used by both Ivory Coast and Ireland to earn 1-1 and 2-2 draws, respectively. That is the formation that Canadian head coach John Herdman prefers and has used to get his team to this World Cup.
The odds of a draw are +475, so a winning $100 bet on Canada winning this contest by a single point would result in a $475 profit.
At +1800, Belgium’s Romelu Lukaku has the sixth-best World Cup Golden Boot odds.
Game 2 of the World Cup between Canada and Croatia
The odds are still stacked against Canada, but not as heavily as they are against Belgium. Croatia has 56.36 percent implied odds to win at -130, according to our odds calculator. Canada, as we’ve seen, cannot afford to lose to any of their group opponents. A victory would be ideal, but a draw would suffice.
Croatia has gone 21-11-14 with a +18 goal differential since the last World Cup. Looking closer at that record, Croatia rarely wins comfortably. 13 (62%) of those 21 victories were by a single goal. Croatia has a very small margin for error. Exactly what Canadians require.
While the Canadians used a more defensively rigid system, they still put up good offensive numbers. The Red and White led the region in goals, assists, and goals-assists minus penalties during CONCACAF qualification, all per 90 minutes (among teams that played at least 10 games).
Defensively, the Canadians had the fewest goals against and the third-fewest assists against in the region for any team that had played more than ten games.
With Croatia’s “ability” to keep the score close and Canada’s strong offensive numbers, at least in CONCACAF qualifiers, a draw is likely.
A winning bet on a likely draw between Croatia and Canada at +270 would result in a $270 profit.
Game 3 of the World Cup between Canada and Morocco
The market for Canada vs Morocco is currently closed.
If a draw against Belgium and Croatia is the best-case scenario, then Canada must win this match against Morocco. Morocco, on the other hand, is no lightweight. They’ve only lost twice in competitive and friendly matches since 2020. Those defeats came against Egypt in the AFCON quarterfinals in January and to the United States in a friendly on June 1.
Moroccans held less of the ball on both occasions, with possession rates of 45 percent (vs Egypt) and 47 percent (vs USA). Egypt and the United States lined up in a more traditional 4-3-3 formation and simply pressed Morocco on and off the ball. And it was effective.
In that 3-0 loss to the US in June, Morocco outshot the US by a factor of two (22-11) but only managed eight shots on goal. That speaks to the US successfully pressuring the Atlas Lions into low-risk situations where the Moroccans could only hope for the best.
To consistently press the Moroccans to make wasteful decisions, Herdman will have to change his formation (which he has done in the past to suit the opponent) to a more traditional 4-4-3, as the US did in June.
Morocco fired veteran head coach Vahid Halilhodzic a few days ago and replaced him with Walid Regragui, who is relatively inexperienced. Regragui has little international coaching experience, but he was Morocco’s assistant coach from September 2012 to October 2013.
The path to the Group of 16 is clear for Canada. It will be difficult, but there is a good chance they will succeed. With +275 to qualify, their implied odds are 26.67 percent, according to our odds calculator. A $100 bet on Canada to qualify would net you $275 plus your initial investment of $100.
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