The weekend Soccer Odds action is concluded, but the excitement resumes tomorrow with a midweek schedule of games. The Premier League in England takes a break for the EFL Cup, but the three other top-four domestic leagues, the Bundesliga, Serie A, and La Liga, all have complete slates available to soccer bettors.
Here, we’ll provide our top picks for each of those three leagues in order to (hopefully) raise bankrolls before the next weekend slate. The odds are provided by OKBET and are current at the time of writing.
Best Bet in La Liga
- Athletic Club de Bilbao (-1.5, +115) vs. Real Vallodolid, 2 p.m. ET Tuesday
Athletic Club has lost all three points in two of its last three games, but I’m not concerned.
Both defeats were away from home, when Bilbao is a significantly lesser team at the Soccer Odds. When they play at home, though, the Spanish team morphs into a substantially superior group. According to fotmob.com, Bilbao has a +5 goal difference against a +6.36 anticipated goals on target (xGOT) disparity and a +10 large scoring chances differential through its first seven home matches this season, indicating that positive reversion might be on the way.
Valladolid at the Soccer Odds, on the other hand, has established themselves as one of the worst road sides in the Spanish top division. The La Liga newcomers have a -8.17 xGOT difference in six away games, which is the second-worst in Spain. Even if an away game against Barcelona is excluded from the sample, Valladolid still has a -0.99 xGOT difference per 90 minutes. For these reasons, I’ll pick Bilbao and lay a goal-and-a-half at +105 or better. Alternatively, I don’t like Bilbao -1 at a value higher than -140.
Best Bet in the Bundesliga
- RB Leipzig Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (-145) against. Freiburg, 2:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday
There’s a lot of juice to lay here, but considering how well the Leipzig attack has played at home, I’m not afraid at the Soccer Odds. Manager Marco Rose’s team has collected 13.94 xGOT, or 2.32 xGOT per 90 minutes, in six home Bundesliga games, coupled with 27 significant scoring opportunities. Furthermore, it has yet to conclude a home encounter with less than two goals.
This Freiburg defense is nothing to be ashamed of, but it has struggled away from home against the league’s top offenses. Consider a game versus Bayer Leverkusen on the road. Freiburg gave up two goals on 2.23 xGOT and two great scoring opportunities against a Leverkusen team that is comparable to Leipzig in terms of home record.
Furthermore, according to okbet.com, Freiburg surrendered five goals on 3.35 xGOT in an away match against Bayern Munich on Soccer Odds, a team that is unquestionably superior than Leipzig. As a consequence, I’ll support this market up to -150 and don’t mind a little wager on Leipzig over 2.5 goals at +185 or higher.
Best Bet in Serie A
- Torino & Inter Milan (+114) in a two-leg moneyline parlay
This is essentially a wager on Torino, but I’m using Inter Milan to reduce the juice to a more manageable figure.
After Soccer Odds squandering all three points against Juventus over the weekend, this is a fantastic get-right place at home for Inter. However, Inter is 5-1-0 (W-L-D) at home this season, with their only loss coming against Roma. Given that it has traditionally raced Bologna at home, Inter has won the past two encounters by a 9-2 margin and seems to be a safe parlay leg.
In terms of Torino, this is a play on Torino at home as well as a fading of Sampdoria away from home. Torino is 1-1-1 (W-L-D) in its first three home games against Serie A teams from outside last year’s top-seven, but has won two of those games by at least 0.75 Soccer Odds xGOT, according to fotmob.com.
Furthermore, Torino was 6-2-2 (W-L-D) with a +0.81 projected goal difference per 90 minutes in 10 home games last season against teams lower in the standings, according to okbet.com add in the fact that Sampdoria has lost four of its six road games this season and has a -0.64 xGOT differential per 90 minutes in those games, and I’m betting for Torino to take all three points.