OKBET Betting on the Bundesliga’s Return
OKBET Betting as the Bundesliga resumed this past weekend, there were many betting questions that needed to be answered. While we may have found some answers, it’s possible that more questions were raised after the first round of results.
It was strange, but also exciting, to watch games in empty stadiums. OKBET Football has returned, and while crowd atmosphere is an important part of the Bundesliga, it felt like a sense of normalcy had returned to the sports world. Another thing to keep in mind is that the league now allows for five substitutions. While not all clubs took full advantage of this, it is useful information for capping purposes.
Clubs with a deep bench have a significant advantage here at OKBET Betting. Bayer Leverkusen was able to bring on players such as Leon Bailey, Karim Bellarabi, Julian Baumgartlinger, Paulinho, and Lucas Alario to finish the game and keep the pressure on Werder Bremen.
This will also be extremely useful as the fixture list becomes more crowded. After this week’s games, for example, there are midweek games on Tuesday and Wednesday. If you’re new to betting the Bundesliga, be sure to read our How to Bet the Bundesliga page as well as our Best Soccer Betting Sites page at OKBET Betting.
Also, keep up with the latest in Bundesliga futures odds in what appears to be an exciting title race.
The scoring does not appear to have been affected.
The Bundesliga is Europe’s top-scoring league (along with La Liga, the Premier League, Serie A, and Ligue 1), averaging more than three goals per game, and the empty stadiums didn’t seem to hinder them much at OKBET Football.
Twenty-seven goals were scored in the league’s first nine games, for an average of 3.0 per game. OVER bets were 6-3 in nine games, but the Fortune Düsseldorf-Paderborn game was a 0-0. After a quick manual count (the likelihood of an error being high, knowing my counting), that was only the 10th 0-0 in the Bundesliga all season.
Is the home field even important?
Perhaps the most important takeaway was that only one home team, Borussia Dortmund, managed to win. Sure, Dortmund closed around -180 against Schalke in the Revierderby, but not even the week’s biggest home favorite was able to cash.
Leipzig closed at around -300 at home against Freiburg, and despite having 66.8 percent possession and outshooting their opponents 22-6, they could only muster a 1-1 draw after falling behind in the first half. Road teams won five and drew three, so if you bet $100 on each road team, you’d have made a profit, albeit a small one, as Bayern Munich was -555 at Union Berlin.
So, does it matter where you play? After the sample size we’ve gathered thus far, perhaps not as much, in my opinion at OKBET Football. There was no massive crowd singing and chanting for 90 minutes in an attempt to rally the troops. Teams such as Eintracht Frankfurt, Köln, Augsburg, and the aforementioned Leipzig missed their home fans terribly.
Dortmund didn’t seem to mind as they thrashed a completely outmatched Schalke team that appeared intimidated from the start in an empty Signal Iduna Park.
Will the books respond?
“We don’t want to overreact to a very small sample size of games, so we won’t be changing our soccer forecasting model,” Bodog told me Tuesday morning.
“However, if this trend continues, we will need to make changes to the model’s ‘home-field advantage’ data points to make our numbers more accurate for these games played in empty stadiums.”
The general public was compensated
Three games in particular, according to Bodog, stung the books. Sixty percent of all bets on Dortmund-Schalke were placed on Dortmund, while 79 percent were placed on Borussia Monchengladbach. That was nothing compared to the whopping 90% of bets on Bayer Leverkusen, which was the biggest loser for books at OKBET Football.
BookMaker was having a bad day as well
“In each of those games, we took it on the chin,” the book said. “65% of the action was on Dortmund, 73 percent on Leverkusen, and 59% on Monchengladbach.” “Just those three games cost us in the low six figures.”
The public has done an excellent job.
The good teams continue to play good football
The good teams can play their game at home or away. Dortmund, Borussia Monchengladbach, and Bayer Leverkusen were easily the week’s big winners, and bettors who invested in these teams reaped the benefits.
Dortmund’s 4-0 win, Gladbach’s 3-1 win, and Leverkusen’s 4-1 win were all visually appealing. Despite the long layoff, three of Germany’s top teams were able to dominate their games and cruise to relatively easy victories, despite the fact that Gladbach and Leverkusen were on the road.
Bayern Munich Wasn’t As Persuasive
Despite winning 2-0, the league leaders appeared to be half asleep at times on the road against Union Berlin.
While Dortmund, Gladbach, and Leverkusen played superb football for the most part, Bayern lacked that spark and dominance in their first game back, despite strong performances from Joshua Kimmich and Thiago.
Union played a pretty strong defensive game for their efforts, and if Neven Subotic doesn’t give up a penalty due to some sloppy defending, this result might be different. Maybe.
Maybe it’s just that Bayern is looking ahead TWO games to the midweek match against Dortmund? Perhaps Union Berlin was an organized defensive unit on that particular day?
Whatever the case, despite a 2-0 victory, I thought Bayern lacked the spark that I saw in Dortmund, Gladbach, and Leverkusen. Still, it’s impressive that they can win a top-flight game 2-0 while barely leaving first gear.
Massive In-Game Advertising
While hindsight is 20/20, there were a few huge in-game betting opportunities this past weekend. Down 2-0, Mainz fought back and earned a point on the road to Köln when Pierre Kunde equalized in the 72nd minute.
The longest odds on Mainz battling back to earn a point were a whopping +3400.
The Augsburg-Wolfsburg game was another highlight. Daniel Ginczek scored the winner in the first minute of injury time, tying the game at 1-1. The cost of victory for Wolfsburg? It did, however, reach +2900.
The Wolfsburg game was perhaps a little “easier” to predict because they piled on the pressure later in the game to earn the victory.
Just goes to show that if you’re watching and think a late winner is on the way, take a shot.
There were a lot of reservations
I’m not one to bet on bookings during a game, but I’m sure some of you will take a shot at it in this type of prop market. There were 35 yellow cards issued, for a total of 3.9 per game. Leipzig was the only team that did not receive a booking, while Frankfurt received the most, with five in their loss to Borussia Monchengladbach.
Referee Felix Brych has issued the most yellow cards in the league, with 56 in 14 games (although I’ve seen conflicting figures). He worked the Augsburg-Wolfsburg game, which had four bookings, so that number is fairly typical for him.
Just something to keep in mind if you’re into this sort of thing in the future.
The most important takeaway, however, is that football has returned. It’s not the same without the fans, but we’ll have to make do in this strange 2020. It was refreshing to be able to watch meaningful games on my couch while admiring the very attack-oriented German Bundesliga.
What steps should you take if you want to bet but aren’t sure where to go or how to play the games? If you go to the OKBET Sports, you will be able to find any extra information that you require.